- Ethereum faces $286M expiry, max pain at $1.7K; resistance at $1.6K critical for breakout to $1.68K.
- U.S.-China tariffs hit 145%, amplifying crypto volatility; Bitcoin rebounds from $74.4K to $82K amid uncertainty.
A total of $2.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expire today, testing market stability as geopolitical tensions escalate. Bitcoin options account for $2.32 billion across 27,794 contracts, while Ethereum sees $286 million in expiring contracts tied to 204,010 lots. The events coincide with heightened U.S.-China trade friction, as Beijing imposes 145% tariffs on American goods—a move analysts warn could amplify crypto market swings.
Bitcoin’s $81K “Max Pain” Threshold in Focus
Bitcoin’s “max pain” price—the level where most options lose value—is $81,000. Open interest data shows $1.7 billion in contracts clustered near $80,000, signaling trader optimism for upward momentum. The put/call ratio of 0.93 leans slightly bullish, with more calls (bets on price rises) than puts. Bitcoin recently rebounded from a four-month low of $74,400, trading near $82,000 ahead of the expiry.
Ethereum Tests Key Resistance Zone
Ethereum’s max pain point sits at $1,700, with a put/call ratio of 0.92 reflecting balanced sentiment. The token hovers around $1,570, testing resistance between $1,580 and $1,600. A breakout above this range could propel it toward $1,680, though broader market uncertainty complicates predictions.
Trade War Adds Macro Uncertainty
The Trump administration’s tariff policies and China’s retaliatory measures have injected volatility into global markets. Equities and cryptocurrencies face dual pressures: economic policy risks and options-related price adjustments. Bitcoin’s 10% rebound from recent lows contrasts with lingering caution, as traders weigh expiry dynamics against macroeconomic instability.
Options expiries often trigger short-term volatility, as traders close or roll over positions. Bitcoin’s open interest near $80,000 suggests expectations of stability, but a drop below $81,000 could prompt liquidations. For Ethereum, reclaiming $1,600 may depend on broader crypto sentiment and ETF-related developments.
ETHNews analysts note that geopolitical tensions could overshadow technical factors. Rising tariffs threaten to dampen risk appetite, potentially offsetting bullish options positioning. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 highlights institutional demand, even as retail participation remains muted.
Today’s expiry will clarify whether bullish options bets align with market reality. Bitcoin’s ability to hold $80,000 and Ethereum’s push past $1,600 may set the tone for June. However, macroeconomic crosscurrents—particularly trade war escalations—could override technical setups, reminding traders that crypto remains tethered to global risk trends.
For now, all eyes remain on the $81,000 and $1,700 thresholds. Breaching these levels could validate bullish options strategies, while misses may deepen corrections. In a market swayed by headlines and hedging, today’s expiry is just one chapter in a volatile narrative.
