- Bitcoin’s recent slowdown may delay its next peak until 2025.
- Historical cycle analysis suggests the next high could occur between late 2024 and early 2025.
Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Delayed Until 2025?
Bitcoin has recently reached new all-time highs, sparking hopes for an extended bull market. However, it faced a pullback, raising questions about when we can expect the leading cryptocurrency to peak given the current cycle’s apparent slowdown.
The Current Cycle: Slowing Down
In mid-March 2024, Bitcoin surged to new heights, advancing 260 days ahead of its typical post-halving cycle. However, after two months of consolidation, this acceleration has significantly tapered off.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital suggests that if this deceleration continues, the current cycle may gradually realign with the traditional pattern, where Bitcoin peaks 518 to 546 days post-halving.
Rather than focusing solely on the halving event, using previous all-time highs as reference points might provide better insights into anticipating the bull market’s peak. Historical cycle analysis indicates Bitcoin typically reaches a bullish peak 266 to 315 days after surpassing its prior all-time high. Since Bitcoin crossed this threshold in mid-March 2024, it’s reasonable to expect the next peak between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
Extending Upward Cycles: A New Trend
Despite the initial cycle acceleration, a retrospective analysis reveals an intriguing trend: Bitcoin is spending more time above its old records before setting new highs. In 2013, this duration was 268 days, increasing to 280 days in 2017 (+14 days), and to 315 days in 2021 (+35 days). Extrapolating this trend suggests that the next peak could occur between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025, or 280 to 350 days after exceeding the previous record.
Should the current cycle’s slowdown persist, Bitcoin might re-synchronize with traditional post-halving cycles. In this scenario, the next bullish peak, based on the 518 to 546-day post-halving trend observed in previous cycles, could shift to mid-September or mid-October 2025.
Strategic Patience in Bitcoin Investment
Although the euphoria at the start of 2024 raised hopes for a near-term Bitcoin bull market peak, a thorough analysis of past cycles and current dynamics necessitates patience. Unless an unlikely acceleration occurs, the next all-time high is not expected before the end of 2024 and more likely in 2025.
Savvy investors should adopt a long-term perspective, avoiding short-term market fluctuations. A strategic and disciplined approach will be key to fully harnessing Bitcoin’s growth potential in the coming years.