- October is historically the most bullish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 22.9%, while September tends to be bearish for financial assets.
- Market developments, such as options trading activities and political factors like the U.S. presidential election, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price movements.
October has long been regarded as the most bullish month for Bitcoin, according to historical data analyzed by the crypto asset trading firm QCP Capital. The company highlights that Bitcoin has delivered an average return of 22.9% in 8 of the last 9 Octobers. However, it’s worth noting that September is traditionally a challenging month for financial assets, including Bitcoin, often displaying bearish tendencies.
Data from the analysis platform “Coinglass” further supports these findings: October’s average return is an impressive 22.9%, with only two negative years since 2013. This low number of losing months makes October stand out compared to other months. February is another strong month for Bitcoin, with only two negative returns recorded, making it the second-best month for Bitcoin investments.
The options market plays a pivotal role in influencing the market trend in October. QCP Capital points out that the ongoing purchase of call options is supporting the bullish sentiment expected in October. Recent examples include increased activity during Asian trading hours, where 150 calls with a strike price of $80,000 for December 2024 were bought. Such investments indicate that market participants are betting on rising prices, suggesting October could once again prove to be a promising month.
In options trading, investors acquire the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a particular asset at a predetermined price in the future. This differs from futures trading, which involves an actual contract to buy or sell. Options provide more flexibility and are a preferred instrument among institutional investors looking to speculate on future price movements.
One potential strategy for investors could be accumulating Bitcoin in September and anticipating a price surge in October if the historical seasonality repeats itself. However, despite the positive outlook, investors should exercise caution and consider additional market factors when making decisions.
The strong performance in February 2024, for example, was significantly driven by external factors such as the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF in the U.S., which led to substantial inflows into the ETF. Similar sentiment shifts could occur if ETF inflows regain momentum.
Currently, many market watchers speculate that the future of Bitcoin’s price will be heavily influenced by political events, such as the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump has openly shown support for cryptocurrencies, which could positively impact the market if he wins. Conversely, a different political direction under the Democrats, who have not explicitly supported cryptocurrencies, could dampen the market.
The intricate web of geopolitical factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and developments in the presidential elections, plays a critical role in shaping Bitcoin investment strategies. Therefore, investors should not rely solely on seasonal patterns but must remain vigilant about the broader landscape and potential risks.