- Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort has flipped from net distribution to net accumulation after price retraced into the $60,000 zone.
- Wallets under 1 BTC and mid-sized wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC are leading the renewed buying, while the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC group is accumulating at a slower pace.
- Institutional analysts disagree sharply on the bottom: Standard Chartered and NYDIG point to $59,000 as the cycle low, while Galaxy Research expects a deeper drawdown toward $40,000 to $46,000 in the fourth quarter.
- Bitcoin currently trades close to 53% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272.
According to the latest Glassnode market research, Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort, the group of investors who typically sell only during late-cycle euphoria, has started buying again after months of steady distribution. The shift became visible once price slipped toward $60,000 and briefly dipped under $58,000, a move that on-chain data now shows was absorbed rather than sold into. The net position change for long-term holders has turned positive for the first time in this drawdown, suggesting that at least part of the market treated the sub-$58,000 print as a discount rather than a warning sign.
The Net Position Change Just Turned Positive
Long-term holders spent the bulk of this year as net sellers. That pattern usually shows up well before a cycle top, and continues as price grinds higher. A reversal of that trend, even a modest one, tends to mark a change in conviction among the investors least likely to trade on short-term noise.
It does not by itself confirm that a new bull cycle has started. Historically, this kind of transition has coincided with short-term holders capitulating and de-risking. That process tends to be separate from long-term accumulation and far more emotionally driven.
Whales have not joined this move yet. The buying is coming almost entirely from retail and mid-sized holders, the two groups least likely to be trading on inside information or institutional flow data.
| Wallet Size Group | Current Behavior | Accumulation Intensity |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1 BTC | Accumulating | Strong |
| 100 – 1,000 BTC | Accumulating | Strong |
| 1,000 – 10,000 BTC | Accumulating | Weaker, early-stage |
Retail-sized wallets and mid-tier holders are moving first. This is a common early pattern in past drawdowns. Larger holders in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range have started buying too, but at a noticeably slower pace, and the market’s largest wallets have not shown the same behavior yet. Analysts watching this metric generally treat broad participation across all wallet sizes, not just the smaller ones, as the stronger signal that a durable low is forming.
How the Current Drawdown Compares With Past Cycle Bottoms
The current price puts Bitcoin at roughly half its October peak, down 53% from the $126,272 top. Judged against the size of previous drawdowns, that leaves open the possibility of further downside before a final low is reached.
Each of Bitcoin’s prior cycles produced a higher low and a higher high than the one before it, which is why this drawdown is still being read by most analysts as part of the same long-term uptrend rather than a break from it. If the current correction followed the 70% to 80% pattern set by 2018 and 2022, the resulting bottom would fall somewhere between $30,000 and $38,000. That outcome is not guaranteed. A smaller redistribution phase followed by consolidation and renewed accumulation, without a crash of that size, remains equally plausible.
| Cycle | Trigger Event | Drawdown From Peak | Approximate Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Mt. Gox collapse | -87% | ~$170 |
| 2018 | ICO bubble collapse | -84% | ~$3,100 |
| 2022 | FTX bankruptcy | -77% | ~$15,700 |
| 2026 (current) | Ongoing correction | -53% so far | Not yet confirmed |
What Analysts Are Saying About Whether the Bottom Is In
The current split among institutional analysts is unusually wide for this stage of a drawdown.
- Galaxy Research takes the more cautious view, stating in a recent institutional report that the bottom of this drawdown is not yet in. The firm tracks 13 historical on-chain signals associated with past cycle bottoms, and only 4 of them have triggered so far. Its base case places the eventual low between $40,000 and $46,000, arriving in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, cited by Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan, describes the market as almost at a bottom following the dip into the high $58,000s. He points to the resilience of spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing corporate buyback programs as evidence that the $59,000 to $60,000 range represents a strong entry point rather than a level likely to break down further.
- NYDIG analysts, also referenced in Hougan’s commentary, share the view that the cycle low was already set near $59,000, citing an expected stabilization in ETF outflows and a possible shift in macro policy.
Analysts working from similar on-chain and flow data are reaching opposite conclusions about how much of the current weakness has already been priced in.
Hyperliquid Longs Are Building Even as Price Falls
Away from spot markets, positioning on the derivatives exchange Hyperliquid shows a growing concentration of long positions even as Bitcoin’s price continues to trade lower. That combination, rising long exposure against a falling price, typically reflects traders betting on a reversal rather than confirming one. It carries its own risk: if a key support level fails, the buildup in leveraged longs could accelerate the downside instead of cushioning it, since forced liquidations tend to add selling pressure exactly when the market is already under stress.
Implied Volatility Says This Bottom Isn’t Finished Yet
Bitcoin’s implied volatility index, a measure of how much price movement options traders are pricing in over the coming weeks, has ticked up slightly from its recent lows but remains well below the extreme readings usually seen during panic-driven selloffs. This divergence points to a market that is still in the early stages of a bottoming process rather than at its conclusion. Traders appear to be positioning for a larger move in either direction, without yet having strong conviction that a floor has been fully established.
Whether This Turns Into a Recovery Depends on One Thing
The next signal worth tracking is whether accumulation spreads beyond the smaller and mid-sized wallets into the largest holder cohorts, since that broadening has historically preceded sustained recoveries in prior cycles. Equally important will be whether short-term holder selling continues to fade or accelerates if price tests lower levels again. Until ETF flow data stabilizes and on-chain bottom signals move beyond the current 4 of 13 confirmed by Galaxy Research, the market is likely to stay caught between the more constructive read from Standard Chartered and NYDIG and the more cautious quarter-ahead timeline from Galaxy.