- 62% of Polymarket participants bet on Bitcoin hitting $70,000 by the end of October, fueled by rising market demand.
- A minor 2.5% price increase could push Bitcoin to the $70,000 threshold, aligning with historical October market trends.
Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal price milestone, with market sentiment turning increasingly bullish. According to data from Polymarket, a popular betting platform, the majority of participants are wagering that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $70,000 by the end of October 2024. Out of the total bets placed, 62% of the funds, amounting to approximately $580,000, back this prediction.
While Bitcoin has not traded at $70,000 for several months, recent price activity suggests that this target may be within reach. Earlier this week, the cryptocurrency briefly touched $68,000—its highest point in almost three months. Currently trading at around $66,000, Bitcoin is only a 2.5% rise away from achieving the projected $70,000 price. Such a modest increase is not out of the question, especially given the recent surge in demand.
Market Sentiment and October Trends
Historical data further supports this optimistic outlook. October has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin, typically witnessing upward momentum in the second half of the month. In 2023, Bitcoin experienced a notable price rally during the latter part of October, a pattern that may be repeating this year. Additionally, macroeconomic factors, such as increased economic activity in major global markets like the United States, following the summer months, often contribute to this positive trend.
As liquidity rises due to lower interest rates in key economies like the U.S., China, and Europe, investors are likely to channel funds into assets like Bitcoin. This trend is reflected in the growing capitalization of stablecoins, which play a crucial role in the cryptocurrency market by providing liquidity for purchasing more volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
The stablecoin market, particularly for Tether (USDT), has been expanding steadily. Many investors hold stablecoins while waiting for favorable market conditions to buy into Bitcoin. This buildup of liquidity in stablecoins typically precedes bullish trends in the broader cryptocurrency market.
Trump’s Influence and the Broader Political Context
The increasing optimism surrounding Bitcoin also aligns with political developments, specifically the growing anticipation that Donald Trump may win the U.S. presidential election. Betting markets like Polymarket show that expectations of a Trump victory have surged, with 62% of bets predicting his win in the upcoming November election. This is a significant shift from previous months when the odds were much closer.
Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies and his public promises to make the U.S. a hub for blockchain and Bitcoin innovation have contributed to this sentiment. He has also pledged to remove certain regulatory obstacles, such as potentially firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whose policies have often been seen as restrictive toward the cryptocurrency industry. A Trump victory, therefore, could lead to more favorable regulatory conditions for Bitcoin, further boosting market confidence.
While Bitcoin’s outlook appears highly promising, the same cannot be said for Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Bets on Ethereum reaching $2,750 by the end of October reflect a more cautious sentiment, with 62% of Polymarket participants wagering on this less ambitious target. This price is still 43% below Ethereum’s all-time high, indicating that market expectations for ETH remain muted compared to Bitcoin.
