- Citi has reversed most of its July downgrade on Bitcoin and Ether.
- The bank expects slower but steadier inflows driven by advisers and brokerages.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their strongest stretch of the year before momentum faded.
- The SEC moved ahead on crypto rules after Congress stalled.
Citigroup has raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and lifted its Ether forecast to $3,028 from $2,240, according to a client note reported by Reuters, citing renewed ETF demand and a more supportive macro environment as trading activity across crypto markets picks up. The revision, worth roughly 38% for Bitcoin and 35% for Ether, unwinds most of the downgrade Citi issued in July and comes with an estimate of about $5 billion in crypto inflows over the next 12 months. Against current prices near $84,000 and $2,700, the new targets imply about 35% upside for Bitcoin and roughly 12% for Ether. The bank does not expect another institutional rush. Its case rests on slower, more persistent buying as financial advisers and brokerages gradually build Bitcoin allocations.
A three-month round trip
On July 1, Citi cut its Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 and its Ether target from $3,175 to $2,240. Bitcoin had just dropped to around $58,864, its weakest level since September 2024, and the bank blamed fading investor appetite, ETF outflows and stalled US crypto legislation. Each of those inputs has since moved. That July cut was already Citi’s second of the year, after the bank entered 2026 with a $143,000 Bitcoin target and a $4,304 Ether target, so even the upgraded figures sit well below where it started.
Bitcoin is up almost 40% over three months and Ether roughly 68%, trimming their 2026 losses to about 4% and 9%. The new Bitcoin target edges past its pre-downgrade level, while the Ether forecast still trails the earlier $3,175. Even at $113,000, Bitcoin would remain below its October 2025 record above $126,000, so Citi’s call stops short of a new cycle high. Standard Chartered estimates that about 54% of stablecoins are hosted on Ethereum, a usage base it argues the token price has yet to reflect, which helps explain why other banks remain more constructive on Ether than Citi.
Citi 12-month targets. Source: Citi client note, as reported by Reuters.
Nine days of ETF buying
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $3.08 billion over nine consecutive sessions, according to Farside Investors data, with a $999 million day on September 21 marking the peak. The week ending September 25 brought about $2.4 billion, the largest weekly intake since October 2025 and enough to turn cumulative 2026 flows positive. Across all digital-asset investment products, weekly inflows reached around $3.55 billion, the biggest of the year, with Bitcoin taking $2.52 billion and Ether $702 million. Assets under management climbed to roughly $173 billion.
Daily inflows had already slowed to $66 million by September 29. The next session broke the streak.
On-chain cost-basis data suggest around 1.39 million BTC changed hands between $84,000 and $86,500. In practice, a large share of current holders bought within a narrow band close to recent prices. Zones like this often act as a floor, since holders tend to defend their entry level, though a decisive break below them can turn the same buyers into sellers.
JPMorgan offered a more cautious reading in September. Its analysts found that gold funds had fully recovered their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs had won back only about half. The bank also flagged elevated short interest and hedging around BlackRock’s IBIT, and argued that unwinding those hedges could add another source of upside.
The Treasury angle
On August 19, the US Treasury said it would at least double the maximum size of its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated securities, raising the cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9. The ceiling later rose to as much as $6 billion, although actual purchases have often come in at about half that.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describes the program as a technical fix for thinly traded bonds. Some investors suspect it quietly caps long-term yields. Citi’s argument does not depend on settling that dispute: it links the softer dollar that followed the expansion to Bitcoin’s recovery, noting that BTC had lagged other risk assets before climbing around 40% from its July lows. When long-term yields and the dollar ease, holding an asset with no yield costs less in forgone income, and dollar-priced assets become cheaper for foreign buyers. Citi treats the buybacks as one supporting factor in that chain. Nothing in the data proves they caused the rally.
Congress stalls, the SEC steps in
Citi’s upgrade arrived despite a setback in Congress. The Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY Act ended 49-50 in September, leaving supporters 11 votes short of the 60 needed. The bill would set a federal market structure for the roughly $2.3 trillion crypto industry, and Citi said its failure narrowed the path to comprehensive legislation.
The SEC then reached for powers it already holds. On September 17, it announced an Innovation Exemption granting temporary conditional relief to certain venues trading tokenized US stocks through permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools, and Chair Paul Atkins tied the step directly to the stalled bill. On September 25, the agency published staff FAQs on how securities laws apply to staking receipt tokens and secondary-market activity, stressing that they reflect staff views and do not bind the Commission. That sequence explains how Citi can turn more optimistic while the legislative outlook worsens.
What Citi needs to see next
Citi’s thesis now depends on advisers and brokerages adding exposure after the headline-driven surge fades. Weekly fund flows will say more than single-day records, and a run of sessions like September 30 would challenge the $5 billion estimate directly. Price action around the $84,000 to $86,500 band will show whether recent buyers hold their positions. The size of Treasury’s buyback operations and the dollar’s direction feed straight into the macro leg of the call, while any SEC rulemaking that follows the exemption will test how far agency action can substitute for legislation.
Corporate demand is also back. Strategy bought another 1,665 BTC for about $143 million, lifting its holdings to roughly 847,666 BTC, more than it held before it started selling coins earlier this year. Corporate treasury buyers play little part in Citi’s model, so sustained purchases from that group would add to its base case.