- ETH’s MVRV ratio nears the “red zone,” historically linked to price corrections and large-scale sell-offs.
- ETH trades at $1,875 with RSI near oversold levels; MACD signals ongoing bearish pressure.
- In 2021 and 2022, entering the MVRV “red zone” preceded ETH’s 60% price collapses.
Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is approaching a threshold historically tied to price corrections. The metric, which compares Ethereum’s market cap to the average cost basis of its holders, currently sits near 0.88.
This places it just below the “red box” range, a zone linked to past instances of increased selling activity. Traders are monitoring the trend, weighing whether recent price levels align with Ethereum’s underlying value or signal overvaluation.
$ETH MVRV is approaching the red box
How are you trading this move?
Check the full chart in this @tradingview idea:
https://t.co/1Ryfbjx8Gk pic.twitter.com/xnBDh9fl4D
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) April 1, 2025
Historical data shows that Ethereum’s price often declines after the MVRV ratio enters this zone. For example, in late 2021, a similar pattern preceded a 60% drop in ETH’s value over three months. A comparable scenario unfolded in mid-2022, when the ratio’s climb into overvaluation territory was followed by a steep price correction. While past performance does not guarantee future outcomes, these precedents suggest caution.
At the time of reporting by ETHNews, Ethereum trades at $1,910, down 1.03% in 24 hours. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 40.42, nearing oversold conditions that could slow further declines.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, reflecting lingering downward pressure. Recent price charts show consecutive red candles, signaling weakened buyer influence.
If selling activity intensifies, Ethereum could test the $1,800 support level—a price last seen in early March. Conversely, a rebound above $1,900 might renew confidence, potentially steering ETH toward the $2,000 resistance.
Market participants are split: some view the MVRV warning as a cue to secure profits, while others argue that oversold conditions could attract new buyers.
The MVRV ratio’s proximity to the red box underscores a broader tension between optimism and caution. While Ethereum’s network activity and adoption metrics remain stable, the technical setup leans toward near-term uncertainty.
Traders now face a balancing act—deciding whether to brace for a pullback or position for a breakout. With no clear catalyst on the horizon, ETH’s next move may hinge on broader market sentiment and shifts in trading volume.
As the ratio teeters, one question lingers: will history repeat, or will Ethereum defy expectations this time? The answer could define its trajectory for weeks to come.
