Investors Warned: Don’t Bet Solely on Bitcoin Halving for Price Surge

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• Despite a recent surge in ETF inflows, the price of bitcoin is currently $63,789.11, down 8.65% over the last seven days.
• According to analyst Ali, there is a crucial support level for Bitcoin at $61,000, with potential movements to $56,200 or a bounce to $66,500 depending on how the market reacts.

The cryptocurrency world is excited about Bitcoin’s upcoming fourth mining-reward halving, which is in just two days. The per block emission will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC during this quadrennial event, which will be a major turning point in the managed supply mechanism for digital assets.

Historical Views and Goldman Sachs’ Consultation

Such price halvings of Bitcoin have in the past caused significant price increases in the market. But Goldman Sachs advises investors to exercise care and not rely too heavily on past performance.

This time around, results could change significantly due to distinct macroeconomic environments during each halving, according to Goldman’s Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equities team.

High interest rates and inflation characterize the current economic climate, which is very different from what it was during earlier halvings. These characteristics limit the overall tendency for risk-taking in financial markets, which may temper the typically optimistic aftermath of the halving.

A Closer Look at Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Rally

According to data from CoinMarketCap, after a turbulent week, the price of Bitcoin is still stable at $63,789.11, up 3.76% over the 24-hour period after being down 8.65% over the previous week.

The astonishing 50% increase in Bitcoin’s price this year alone suggests that significant inflows into U.S.-based spot ETFs are driving this surge.

Ali, a popular crypto analyst, highlights that $61,000 is a crucial level for Bitcoin. If this is broken, there might be a correction down to $56,200. The price might reach $66,500 on a rebound from this level, though, and the first indication of such a bounce would be a 4-hour candlestick closing above $62,300.

$61,000 is a very important level for $BTC! If it breaks, it will trigger a correction to $56,200.

But if #Bitcoin can rebound, we could see an upswing to $66,500. The first sign of a rebound will be a sustained 4-hour candlestick close above $62,300. Until then, we brace for… pic.twitter.com/KOg4HuZOJ2

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 18, 2024

The Bigger Picture: Market Dynamics and an Update on Bitcoin Core

The goal of the final upgrade prior to the halving, Bitcoin Core 27.0, is to further stabilize the network while it gets used to the 3.125 BTC block reward, as previously reported by ETHNews.

This is an important technical improvement since it guarantees the network’s stability in the face of large economic fluctuations and increased market activity.