According to a recent report by CryptoQuant, shared by analyst PelinayPA, Bitcoin is showing a notable sign of resilience: miner selling pressure is being consistently absorbed by large buyers.
Miner Flows Are Rising, but Price Keeps Climbing
On-chain data shows an increase in miner-to-exchange flows, particularly to Binance. Historically, this metric signals that miners are preparing to sell Bitcoin, introducing potential supply pressure into the market.
What stands out in the current setup is that despite elevated miner selling activity, Bitcoin’s price continues to trend higher. Key moving averages tracking miner exchange flows, such as the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, remain elevated but stable, without a sharp breakdown. This suggests that while miners are distributing supply, the market is meeting that supply with sufficient demand.
In practical terms, sellers are active, but buyers, likely large holders or institutions, are stepping in to absorb the coins.
Historical Context: When Miner Selling Matters and When It Doesn’t
Looking back across previous cycles helps clarify why the current situation matters.
- 2017–2020: Miner selling remained mostly moderate. Miners distributed Bitcoin gradually as prices rose, but this did not derail broader uptrends.
- 2021 peak: Miner flows increased meaningfully, yet Bitcoin continued pushing toward new highs. Demand overwhelmed supply, similar to what is being observed now.
- 2022 bear market: This period marked a sharp contrast. Miner transfers to exchanges were both high and persistent, coinciding with a clear and sustained downtrend. Rising energy costs and falling prices forced miners to sell aggressively, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Historically, miner selling has tended to amplify existing trends. When demand is strong, selling is absorbed. When demand weakens, miner distribution accelerates declines.
Why Current Conditions Look Different From 2022
A key difference today lies in miner economics. Average miner breakeven costs are estimated near $50,000, meaning miners are not under the same existential pressure they faced during the 2022 downturn.
As a result, selling appears strategic rather than forced. This reduces the likelihood of panic-driven liquidation unless Bitcoin approaches those breakeven levels.
The 2023–2025 Phase: A Market in Balance
CryptoQuant’s data highlights that the 2023–2025 period is structurally unique. Miner exchange flows are historically high, which helps explain why Bitcoin has struggled to produce a rapid, vertical rally.
Rather than breaking the trend, miner selling is acting as a counterweight, applying steady supply that slows upside momentum without reversing it. This creates a market environment defined by absorption and consolidation rather than explosive expansion.
What the Data Suggests Going Forward
The takeaway from CryptoQuant’s analysis is not bearish. On the contrary, the ability of the market to absorb sustained miner selling signals underlying strength.
- Miner selling alone is not enough to reverse the trend.
- Large buyers appear willing to accumulate at current levels.
- A breakdown would likely require a demand shock, not miner activity alone.
As long as miner flows remain absorbed and price holds above key support zones, the data suggests Bitcoin’s structure remains intact, even if upside progress remains gradual rather than explosive.
