- FOIA data shows USMS holds only 29K BTC ($3.4B), far below Arkham’s 198K BTC estimate, sparking sell-off speculation.
- Senator Lummis labels potential sales a “strategic blunder,” as Polymarket odds for a US BTC reserve plunge to 30%.
A Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed by crypto reporter L0la L33tz shows the U.S. Marshals Service currently holds 28,988 Bitcoin. This amount equals approximately $3.4 billion.
The figure proved lower than many anticipated. David Bailey, chairman of the Bitcoin Conference, reacted to the number. He stated the U.S. government likely sold about 85% of its Bitcoin holdings. Bailey described this development as “bullish” news.
It looks like we might know how many Bitcoin the us government is holding now and it’s about 85% less than thought.
Explains why the price action was stuck for so long. Bullish https://t.co/gPYaySeB4L
— David Bailey🇵🇷 $1.0mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) July 16, 2025
Separate blockchain data from Arkham presents a different point. Arkham estimates the U.S. government controls roughly 198,000 Bitcoin, valued near $23 billion. This estimate comes from tracking wallets identified as government-controlled.
These assets should reside with the U.S. Marshals Service. However, no large Bitcoin transfers matching a potential sale appeared on the public blockchain ledger. Security researcher Tay Vano pointed out a specific detail. Vano noted that 69,370 Bitcoin seized from Silk Road remains in a pre-forfeiture status. Therefore, these coins are not yet officially under Marshals’ custody.
Notably, the final # provided by USM was 28,988.35643016 BTC (worth ~$3.47 Billion today)
Obviously the 69,369.1662802 BTC (worth ~$8.3 Billion today) is not included in that number.
Even though it has been forfeited to USG.
This is likely because it still remains in the…
— Tay 💖 (@tayvano_) July 16, 2025
Bailey offered an explanation for the discrepancy. He suggested the government sold Bitcoin using off-exchange swap agreements.
Read the thread. Sani does not say that, he just says it’s not conclusive (though I think it is conclusive they’ve been selling without creating onchain footprint). Yes there’s more nuance but this is major development. https://t.co/WPwa8TnvQt
— David Bailey🇵🇷 $1.0mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) July 16, 2025
These types of transactions do not record movements on the public blockchain. On-chain analyst Sani supported this view.
Here’s my final take on the whole U.S. government Bitcoin holdings situation:
I’ve been tracking certain addresses believed to be linked to U.S. government holdings just like many others in the space. Since there’s been no recent on-chain movement, the assumption is that none of… https://t.co/Sm5XYnBCOP
— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) July 16, 2025
Sani identified Coinbase as the likely large custody provider facilitating such swaps. Coinbase currently serves as the custody provider for the U.S. Marshals Service.
The U.S. government primarily acquired its Bitcoin through asset seizures. Law enforcement agencies like the FBI conducted these seizures. The larger 198,000 Bitcoin estimate included coins linked to the Bitfinex hack. Courts ordered the return of these specific coins to Bitfinex in early 2025.
Senator Cynthia Lummis responded strongly to the FOIA disclosure. She labeled the implied large-scale Bitcoin selling a “strategic blunder” for the United States. Lummis declared:
“This sets the United States back years in the Bitcoin race.”Â
Data from prediction platform Polymarket reflects changing expectations. The perceived likelihood of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin reserve by year-end 2025 has fallen. Odds decreased from about 80% in January 2025 to roughly 30% by July.
