According to a new report from XWIN Research Japan, shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is currently moving through a fragile “stop-and-go” phase.
On-chain indicators suggest the market is adjusting after a rebound, but without the capital inflows needed to confirm a durable trend reversal.
Macro backdrop limits risk appetite
The report places recent price action within a broader macro context. On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, a decision that had been largely priced in by markets. As a result, the yen failed to strengthen meaningfully following the announcement. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks stressed uncertainty around future rate hikes, reinforcing expectations of a slow and cautious tightening path.
This environment, XWIN notes, has direct implications for Bitcoin’s leverage dynamics and regional capital flows. Yen-funded carry trade activity, which can amplify speculative risk-taking, appears restrained rather than expanding.
Leverage reset without re-acceleration
On-chain leverage data supports this view. The Estimated Leverage Ratio declined sharply during the recent downside move, signaling that excessive speculative positioning has already been flushed out. Crucially, leverage has not rebuilt despite ongoing price volatility.
This pattern suggests that recent price movements are not being driven by renewed leverage or aggressive speculative behavior. Instead, the market appears to be operating with reduced risk exposure, consistent with a post-rebound adjustment rather than the early stages of a new bullish phase.
Coinbase premium points to weak spot demand
Spot demand indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. The Coinbase Premium Index has rebounded from deeply negative levels, indicating that selling pressure is easing. However, it has failed to establish a sustained move into positive territory.
XWIN interprets this as a sign that strong U.S.-led spot buying remains absent. While the improvement from extreme negative readings suggests stabilization, the lack of consistent premium implies that the recovery lacks demand-driven conviction. Even with continued yen weakness, the absence of persistent spot inflows argues against a structural uptrend at this stage.
What would change the outlook
The report outlines clear conditions for reassessing the current stance. A meaningful shift would require the Coinbase Premium Index to stabilize above zero while prices rise without a corresponding increase in leverage. Such a combination would point to accumulation driven by real demand rather than speculative positioning.
Until those signals emerge, XWIN maintains that the base case remains a fragile recovery marked by ongoing supply-and-demand adjustment. Downside pressure is no longer accelerating, but it has not yet been decisively replaced by sustained buying interest.
For now, Bitcoin appears stuck in a stop-and-go phase, stable enough to avoid breakdown, but lacking the inflow strength needed to define the next directional move.
